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Posts Tagged 'future'
The Director of World Bank Economic Trends, Andrew Burns, announced on June 9 at the launch of the Global Economic Prospects Report 2011 , that Spain "is a very serious situation, a situation that is echoing the Anglo-Saxon press a long time (and exaggerating), especially in the Bible salmon WASP, The Financial Times (special supplement included with this week). Not to mention The Times, which in the edition of June 8 began with this headline from its correspondent in Spain "uncollected garbage, hospitals in emergency mode and schools closed ..." of course it was a story in reference to the strike officials, but that had to read the bulk of the story, what matters is that it appears that the Spanish situation and is equated to the Greek. To round off the article yesterday in the New York Times, which said that the Zapatero government is doing everything possible for Spain to win the World Cup, and serve as an "escape" to the desperate situation in the country.
I will not be the one who denies that we are experiencing an alarming situation. Yes, definitely alarming because there are so many millions of families who experience the anxiety of unemployment is tragic, alarming for little or no confidence in the future we have, alarmingly political blindness of those who make policy in this country, and its short-term vision of the Policy. Alarming, because it takes great sacrifices to do that still nobody knows how to tell, we have to do a restructuring of our production system and so far I see no progress, no signal, and alarming because I do not see a united, walking toward a clear goal : the path of economic and social growth.
That said, I must also say that at all accept that this is a debacle, as we want to paint the Anglo-Saxon press (and their affiliates, monetary speculative markets are they who are making profits at the moment). It was in Spain, where the crisis erupted, or was in Spain where we had to inject huge amounts of public money into the system, as in the U.S., UK or Germany, to give clear examples. In Spain, there has only been a problem with two boxes, and sets an example for the international financial system our system of financial provision of the system.
Having said that, after the orgiastic injection of public money in the international financial system, at a cost 0, if zero, because all they are asked (I hope) is that I paid back without interest (did you make?) Now is that we have a problem of sovereign debt (not only in Spain) and to solve it you need the money from those he saved from bankruptcy (which has not been done in history, with no production sector on a global scale) obviously they are going to give market price, ie interest. Result: The same guys win, despite his nefarious efficiency and lack of global ethics (in fact the same "managers" that led to the crisis, are now traded sovereign debt, that system disgust!).
But back to the beginning. If it is harmful to the financial system and international public systems depend on the grade of "independent" of three rating agencies, which obviously have their own interests and also operate as agents in the market to win customers, more pernicious still have a global banking structure, far from making its currency transparency works on account of the prevailing Anglo-Saxon financial majority.
On yesterday, the World Bank falsified data on Spain, claiming a debt level that we have, we are the 14th and below the EU average, so to establish a ranking officer (to formalize the famous PIGS of Anglo-Saxon press, it must be remembered that it is no official acronym of any international official agency) touted as the EU-5 (Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy). After hesitating hesitation about why, wanted to justify it as a risk classification between debt and deficits, but is that not the case. In this sense they are most dangerous combinations in the UK (!) And France, that of Spain.
My outrage is palpable. At the end of the day for the markets to have the 9th economic power within range of speculation is a dish rather than greedy, and that it will provide institutions and the Anglo-Saxon press that takes years sharpening his scythe (I think it never exceeded the Spanish companies were shopping in the 90s and beginning of the century by Britain, America and the U.S.), is merely the result of a long-awaited vendetta.
We play, work hard and paddle together, that is the only recipe out of this. Ah! and it is time to stop for entrepreneurs.
Yes, the solution is easy in theory, it is a system of economic governance real, tangible and developed ad hoc institutions, to revert the current perversion of the system. I mean the economic financial ystem s, replacing the industrial system of production of goods and services, to one that only generates money. And this is the central perversion of the system: money market itself and not as a vehicle for generating markets for goods and services, and therefore social wealth.
No doubt, globalization has been the catalyst necessary for the financial orgy of the last decade. A "free" market running 24 hours a day, highly technical, mathematical models that calculate the risk dispassionately, whose goal is the benefit for monetary gain, nothing more. Finance naked, without soul, without the need to provide value to society, even the most recalcitrant "neocons" have dared to think such a system, at the time of the last term of Ronald Reagan in the U.S..
But reality is stubborn, and has left us a desolate landscape, where monetary profit optimization has been carried forward to multinational giants that show this reality, where nothing is created or produced, nothing remains. The large financial holding large holdings have proved maché, worst-case scenarios than any peplums made for the years 60 and 70 Roman film series "B".
There is another, more disquieting, and my humble opinion more worrying in the long term: the absence of a capacity of financial management manifest world of sovereign states. And I can only think of two reasons, and both are really bleak. Or, we are in a scenario in which nation-states, have no real discretion to control markets (with the exception of fiscal policy of transactions within its territory, and here begins a lengthy discussion on the concept of "territory" in which there are large economic transactions), or if this is a blatant worldwide (especially in the OECD) of the ineffectiveness of economic governance and control mechanisms for financial management, where undoubtedly the most remarkable case, without doubt, the U.S. stars. His policy of "laissez faire" in domestic markets and limited regulation of its financial system, has a large degree of blame for what is happening.
But not only U.S.. is guilty of this, I worry more about what happens on this side of the Atlantic. We were many European citizens who note with some puzzlement the construction of the EMS (European Monetary System) in the EU. Intoxicated by the smell of the Euro, were used as the value of the ECU, we saw it as a natural extension of the future strength of the Union, building a single currency, based on the parity of the European Monetary System with the idea of competing with dollar in foreign markets and forgetting something basic: whole monetary system must be based on financial and fiscal policy highly harmonized. Without this premise, and despite some discordant voices critical of this possibility in the IGC which gave birth to the Euro, we have reached this point.
The point at which Europe has to face two major challenges for successful completion of the Strategy 2020 , not to see it fail, as above. A Europe that has to do with a view to the future rather than short-term vision to which we have used the national policy of each state. We need to recover the visionary capacity of the founding fathers, and for that work must be done urgently. This is part of r eformular European institutional framework in two ways: first develop a series of financial and fiscal institutions that give rise to a system of European Economic Governance, which succeeded in harmonizing the economic and fiscal policy in the EU. We can not all be in the hands of the ECB and Ecofin (with the national vision of each state on the table. For example, sufficient Merkel government's attitude to the Greek rescue operation). On the other hand, it is time to give European citizens a greater role in deciding who should be their representatives in the EU. We must give the necessary political step to achieve a balance between legitimate national interests within the EU, with the need for a true political government of the EU.
Now is the time to give the age of "true" to citizenship. The EU President and a true government of the EU is to be elected by direct vote of the citizenry, with the European Parliament, as guarantor of the activity of the European executive and, obviously, with the appropriate weight to Council In carrying out the momentum to European policies.
It is a time of political change, social change and territorial balance change on the planet. In the next two decades will see as emerging powers will be asked to take their place in the world, and Europe must be present to lead a system of social and political organization, to make innovation and development (technological, social and political) flag on the world stage.
This is the true meaning of the Economic Governance at a time like this, and a starting point to carry out actions, such as Joseph Stiglitz has proposed for the Ideas Foundation , with the implementation of national taxes and planetariums to capital movements with speculative interest.
It is time to rethink a new social model, a model adapted to the digital society, where citizens want more capacity for action and decision on the issues that affect the fate of future generations.
I therefore think and work in this regard that we must promote a European Citizens' Initiative to request that the President of the EU, to be voted by direct suffrage and reformulate the Lisbon Treaty to give weight to the ability of citizens' political decision . Sounds utopian, does not it, but you have to start somewhere ...
It had been speculating on this technology long ago, has actually been lurking waiting time. And his moment came with Avatar, the epic (not film) by James Cameron (undoubtedly the Year 0 of 3D technology). And is that the consumer technology industry will owe him a lot for many years.
At the last CES in Las Vegas (the largest world fair of electronics technology industry) presented the first 3D TV models will go on sale during this semester. The pioneers were Samsung (and I still barely lit LED technology has caused the disappearance of plasma and LCD have made the prehistoric technology, in just three years this has happened), LG, Sony and Panasonic; ie the "usual suspects", Korean and Japanese (Where is the R & D in Europe in this sector.? The Sector for the coming years).
Yes, this will mean yet another revolution in the entertainment industry, if anything this will be deeper. And why not? Quite simply because it forces rethink how to experience the audiovisual entertainment and interaction with all existing equipment and virtual worlds on the web.
If you're still exhausted with changes in VHS (sorry if you were Beta, yes, I know, it was better, but admits that it was like having a produto Apple 10 years ago, a strange freak among the great mass of consumers of video). What he said change from VHS to DVD (with the usual outlay it entails, especially for film buffs and collectors who writes), and DVD to Blue Ray (Hey! On the Beta, it would not be that you went to HD- DVD, well that happens to be an "early adopter" clueless). Not nabla of non-physical digital formats and convert cassette to CD, and then the terror of the industry: mp3 format (I hope the SGAE, not audit this blog and accuse me of name the unnamable).
It's all in musical notation, as new formats are being defined are already having problems of compatibility with systems that are already on the market and those who are in the starting line of the same this year. In theory there are three organizations that are working to coordinate the formats that are becoming available to the public: The SMPTE (Society of Motion Pictures & Engineers), the 3D @ Home Consortium and the ITU (International Telecommuncation Union). Of these arise all standards are approved and those to come.
The Big Questions:
I know you're wondering if your brand new LCD 50 "or your new Blue Ray player, will be compatible with what is coming. At the outset I will say that no TV and the other "tecnostuff" depends. It will be totally necessary to take over a TV with 3D technology and depends only affects the Playstation 3, which reprodcutor of BR will be able to update via software for playing 3D content.
In addition, each manufacturer of the new TV special glasses made for your model, thereby eliminating interoperability (as well as brothers, cousins, friends and brothers - I say male because now I am going to understand - to agree to buy models of the same mark for when the World Cup in South Africa, which will be the cause of the global phenomenon of the extension of 3D in the home, if not, there will be discussions of all types and family breakdown, I'm afraid) .
This is already going to be a failure from the outset to achieve greater penetration in the market, forcing users to create brand communities and not by system (I think it was a failure of long-term vision, or rather supine greed to get large share of the market from the outset, and therefore greater capacity limitation). Yet brands provide, according to Sony, that half of the appliances sold in the world market in 2013 has this technology.
But the big battle is not going to happen in the film market. No doubt the great battle will be in the video game market and here Sony has the upper hand: the PS3 is fully supported by the system and therefore consolillas as the wii, are doomed to extinction, not to mention the Xbox 360. Large software firms already see the future and the future is 3D.
On the future:
I dare to venture that the big jump will occur in the office, 3D technology will allow us to virtual interactions as we have never guessed, and this will be the real market that will revolutionize. The CAD applications will be available to any user, social networks will experience a radical change in use, both in format and in content and form of interaction, advances in telemedicine will be radical, or in the field of investigation of the life sciences, chemistry or theoretical physics, not to mention the immediate capabilities of computer equipment, more powerful chips thanks to graphene, the future applications of quantum computing and the impending integration in the future web semantics.
That is what I mean, that's it, no one knows what lies ahead, and whatever is not the next decade, not even the next five years. We'll see him before he can take as users.
Conclusion: It's time ... and visionary entrepreneurs
PD: By the way (especially for the Beta and HD DVD), if you're considering being a early adopter of this technology, we anticipate that there are companies that are developing systems for home 3D without glasses. Yes, without glasses, and it is what you're thinking: are based on holographic systems.
I just read the book of George Friedman , "The Next 100 Years" , and I must admit that far from creating me a sense of what expectations can bring this century in which we have traveled a turbulent first decade, has achieved the opposite: it has made it quite cold. In establishing the geo-political bases according to the author, will be key in the next 90 years if it is true that the author acknowledges that some future projections are based on the fact expect the unexpected, something that has been consistent over the future of humanity, especially in the contemporary history is concerned. Suffice to note that the trajectory of the twentieth century. If we divide into five parts, each 20 years nobody would have known venture that was to happen in the next two decades.
But apart from sharing with the author that the U.S. will remain the dominant power this century, are visions of course obviate settled concrete realities of the international scene, which in my point of view at all correspond to projections future, rather, I think, is about "wishes" for not saying "run notes" for future White House occupants, particularly those of a political tendency.
But first, let's make a point about who is George Friedman, or rather who is behind this Doctor Cornell University in Political Science. The Jewish Holocaust survivor from Hungary, was lucky enough to start a new life in the U.S., and certainly this has shaped the vision of his political imagination, founded the Center for Geopolitical Studies at Louisiana State University (curious place to launch a project of this nature, away from Washington), but now runs the company called Stratfor Global Intelligence , a think tank specializing in strategic geopolitical forecasts (hence the Stratfor = Strategic Forecast).
This company created in 1996 by Mr. Friedman, has become a specialist company in geopolitics also have a public viewing (many of their analysts are commentators and writers in the BBC, Fox News, The Economist, etc.. ), has a vision of institution related to certain lobbying the Republican Party, and is heavily linked to the CIA (this is nothing new in U.S., many think tanks are common suppliers reporting and analysis, not only the CIA but from other agencies). But this fact is undoubtedly very important throughout the pages of the book, that far from being an intuition of how it will be the future, I think it describes the intentions "Imperial" (and legitimate from the point of view U.S. geostrategic.) medium term, giving clue where they have to go in the footsteps of future Republican administrations (this is a deduction of whom you write). The style: the usual, to prepare the economy and society for war. The War as "sacrosanct" Grail used to generate wealth and social progress, economic and industrial. This is a kind of psalm is repeated throughout the pages, especially when describing the Space War by mid-century, against the Turkish-Japanese coalition. China, what will remain of the current, will be with the Americans and Russia will have disappeared from the international scene, totally dismembered and decomposed.
But where does it fit Europe in the XXI century? According to Friedman anywhere. Moreover not a single mention of the European Union, as if the EU is not existent, not a tangible reality in the international community. In fact speaking of Germany and France as countries dying on the UK, they are no comments. Yes, you're right, it is the easternmost U.S. territory fully folded U.S. imperial desires and without any prominent role in the international arena. Of course the true and only European power in this century will be: Poland!, A paranoid with Germany and Poland pending a rematch with Russia, in line with Hungary and Romania. And the bad of the function is Turkey, which is the only world power in the Muslim world, not Islamic extremists, but with its Ottoman past in tow.
This is what the article describes. The EU does not exist, are irrelevant, in fact as he describes the future evolution of the century, now the EU is already irrelevant and the weight of Europe exist.
What can you infer from this? For me it is transparent. E l European political system, which goes to build new bridges of permanent international cooperation between states, mixing economic, political and social sectors, unnerving to some U.S. politicians. At the end of the day the neocons and supporters of the "Tea Parties", just understand the speech of arms, as they have been describing mandate after mandate.
The question, of concern, is whether that's just the isolated opinion of an ultraconservative sector of the Republican Party, or if the contrary doctrine that is widespread and some agencies and think tanks conservatives, or at worst, this type No opinion on the Future of Europe is already incorporated in the strategic studies centers of the armed forces of the United States.
The answer is quite clear, we need more Europe, we must move forward and now the priority is economic union and not only monetary, not to mention Europe's diplomatic strategy, p ut this will be the next post ...
Two apparently different issues, have made me rethink the usual consideration that the human race is predisposed to repeat history everlastingly at some point in its evolution.
This week, we saw how the Obama administration in the White House received a Dalai Lama , reincarnated in the shape of the Tibetan resistance against repression under Chinese rule. Indeed, such a meeting took place in the wing S maps and not in the Oval Office, and both the reception Lama, as his departure was made by the "back door" of the Presidential Building. And the times are specifically chosen not coordinated with the needs of the U.S. international agenda is being set.
Time, which pass through the need for the Chinese vote in the Security Council the UN to impose sanctions that the international community wants to require the treatment of "atomic ayatollahs" of Iran. Recall that the Iranian tyrannical regime can be a major destabilizing influence in their area of strategic importance, given that his once powerful enemy, Iraq is broken and you can fully engage with all his strength to intimidate Israel.
At this point, is when the role of China, will play importance in the future. If you want to be a great power, or rather, the great power of the XXI century, can not limit your game to be the counter in the U.S., especially when there are regional powers and trade with other types of influence in the multipolar stage which develop international action. This goes through an extensive understanding of what happened in the last century, and especially the two last decades of the Cold War. The USSR as a counter took actions and directions that became counterproductive, with its peak in what today we call the Afghan Lesson (same in the U.S. and Europe are backsliding and I fear we are doomed to repeat) .
China has to fit its international strategy, not on their disagreements with the West, but to align with other OECD countries, their natural market. I understand that play to the strategy of world domination, but that rule is exercised by financial markets today, and not governments. And China has to understand that Al Qaeda and other extremists are SA as his natural enemies, and the rest of the West. Despite their interest to settle in the West where he tries (and does so by others), are precisely those places where it should be more present Afghan lessons, especially in some African countries where China has made a great landing.
While China and the U.S., they play their roles in the geostrategic and, nineteenth, and outdated Security Council board of the UN, but in fact their economies are too intertwined as ensures Basterra FG to break bilateral relations, another lesson from the past is gathering strength and worry excessively.
This weekend in Washington DC, celebrates the annual meeting of the CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference), or what is the same as the largest gathering of the extreme right in Western democracies tolerate, something unthinkable in Europe not only has naturalized in the U.S., it is a strategic meeting in which they are defining strategies to take control of the GOP Party (Republican) for power in the U.S. And it is not a simple collection of admirers of Reagan and Bush Jr. We're talking about a meeting from the meetings of the Tea Party , is defining a political basis and excluding simple: We combined a hatred of the "apparatus" of State and the Presidency of Obama.
This base their entire ideology on one basic principle: "Our rights do not emanate from the state, came from God," we, like Ahmadinejad in Iran calls when calls to jihad. They accuse Obama of "hide the file from the population," precisely the forum where Dick Cheney, a character who has made secrecy, lying and hiding their hallmark. But also say they will fight against "tyranny" of Washington, or what is the same against the Federal Government (and therefore against the governments revenue) and the "war against illegal immigration" (or what is the it: l to war against "unknown" someone is to blame for the crisis tangible suffer). Nada say against the big monopolies, the big companies or the financial system that has made them lose their savings or their homes . How are they going to rebel against their "God": capitalism.
But my fear, and even knowing that in the present circumstances no longer a clear exaggeration, comes from the lessons of the past. It was the fear, economic recession and the feeling of losing (in the U.S. there after 11-S, have met the enemy, nor have expired and the fear is growing every day), which in the 30s the last century, led to a right-wing populist to power through the ballot box and the support of oligopolies and certain media, then came the coup and the worst war mankind has experienced.
Of course what I say is an exaggeration, but in this age of political correctness, democracies are not structured systems purge the extremists out of them, and I am concerned over the possibility of a White House in the hands of a Republican Party took by the extreme right, with an undemocratic China and erratic in their international commitments, a Russia sees NATO as its main enemy, with only formal democracy, a nuclear Iran and some regional powers with authoritarian tendencies.
At the end we miss the Cold War or, hopefully, find a balance in which to correct these imbalances and regional politicians.
If you have not clarify the role the European Union to play in the next decade, because I hope to have cleared any doubt with this reflection, which I hope you are very wrong about the possibilities that lie.
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